Fuel prices across Moose Jaw remain elevated and unpredictable, with no significant relief in sight, as oil markets react to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Fuel prices remain volatile According to GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan, recent developments involving Iran and the United States have triggered sharp swings in oil prices over the past several days. He says mixed messaging from both the White House and Iran is fueling uncertainty. “President Donald Trump over the weekend promised to attack Iran and their power plants, then Monday switched tones and talked about the potential for a ceasefire — pausing attacks on Iran and moving in a more diplomatic direction — has oil prices responding in a significant way,” said De Haan. “Monday, oil prices crashed 10 per cent. Yesterday, they jumped another five per cent on the lack of clarity.” Prices ease slightly, but remain above normal While there has been a slight dip locally, prices in Moose Jaw remain significantly higher than just a few weeks ago. De Haan says the average price for gasoline in the city is sitting at 156.3 cents per litre, down about a penny and a half from last week. Even with that drop, prices remain roughly 34 cents higher than a month ago. While the spike in gasoline prices is unwelcome, diesel continues to be the bigger concern for many critical sectors of Saskatchewan’s economy. The average price for diesel in Moose Jaw is now 204.9 cents per litre — up from around 150.9 before the recent conflict, and within about 15 cents of the city’s record high set in 2022. De Haan says those prices carry broader economic consequences in Saskatchewan. “Everything moves with diesel,” he said. He points to transportation, agriculture, and supply chains as key areas feeling the pressure, with higher fuel costs driving up expenses across multiple industries. In the news: Pothole season hits Moose Jaw as City ramps up repair efforts Rising need forces service changes at Moose Jaw Food Bank Farmland values in the Prairie provinces continue to climb ▶️ Listen to this news story on the radio Limited ability to respond in the short term Despite rising prices, there’s little Canada can do in the short term to increase supply. De Haan says oil producers in Canada and the United States are not able to quickly ramp up production in response to sudden price spikes. He says increasing production can take months and requires significant investment, making it unlikely that companies will react to what is expected to be a short-term situation. He adds Canada also faces ongoing challenges getting its oil to market. De Haan points to limited pipeline capacity as another constraint, saying it has historically made it more difficult to move Canadian oil efficiently, even during periods of high demand. “This could be a smart time for Canada to rethink its stance,” he said, noting Canada also lacks a strategic petroleum reserve, unlike the United States. “These types of instances give you a very clear cut and definitive reason to have inventories available.” De Haan says those factors limit the country’s ability to respond to sudden disruptions or help stabilize prices. Global impacts more severe overseas While Canadians are seeing higher prices, the situation is more severe in other parts of the world, particularly Southeast Asia and increasingly Europe. “There’s also real-term supply disruptions… areas like Southeast Asia are literally rationing fuel and they’re running out,” he said. North America has so far avoided shortages, but not the price impact. “If there is no peace deal in the days ahead, it could become more problematic for Canada and the United States in the weeks ahead in terms of price, not necessarily availability,” said De Haan. “We’re somewhat insulated from what the rest of the world is experiencing, but we certainly can’t fence ourselves off from the pricing impacts.” Outlook remains uncertain There are some early signs of stabilization, with oil prices trending slightly lower, but De Haan says the situation remains volatile. “Things are changing on a minute-by-minute, if not an hour-by-hour basis,” he said. He adds that if progress is made toward a peace deal, prices could ease, but without one, upward pressure could continue in the weeks ahead.