COVID-19 ICU and inpatient hospitalizations are trending in the right direction, according to the latest Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) modelling numbers. 

The latest modelling shows that hospitalizations, both acute care and ICU, are trending downward, with acute care potentially reaching sustainable levels by late January and ICU levels could be sustainable as soon as February. 

Residents taking it upon themselves to have smaller gathering sizes and an increase in vaccine uptakes are being credited for bringing the hospitalizations down. 

“We've done well by keeping our contacts low and avoiding places where we may not know if everyone is fully vaccinated. The proof of vaccination system is working,” Saskatchewan Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab said. 

The modelling looked at four different scenarios.  

Scenario one would see gathering size continue to be low, but faster waning off of protections against COVID-19 such as vaccinations and mask-wearing.  

Scenario two would be faster waning and 28 days of even lower gathering sizes, while scenario three would be slower waning and low gathering sizes. The fourth and best-case scenario is a slower waning and 28 days of even lower gathering sizes. 

Scenario one would see a spike around New Year’s Day and start trending downwards in late January and reach sustainable levels by March at the earliest. 

Scenario two would see the downward trajectory to near-sustainable levels around mid-December before plateauing and heading downward again below sustainable levels in mid-January. 

Scenario three is similar to scenario two expect it would plateau at a rate well above sustainable levels before trending downwards in mid-January. 

The final scenario would see a dramatic drop in hospitalizations bringing sustainable levels by early December. 

“But if we don't do all the things we're doing, we could start plateauing at a higher level, which would then create some challenges to the full resumption of all non-COVID services,” Shahab said. 

However, all of these scenarios rely on residents keeping gathering sizes small. Shahab said what would happen if gathering sizes grow is complex. 

“It is not just one thing that has an impact, but we have to be very careful and watch diligently,” he said. 

“Many jurisdictions in Canada, some of the northern U.S. states and many countries in Europe, some with low vaccination rates much lower than us, but some with fairly high vaccination rates are seeing dramatic surges.” 

The modelling also showed that about 67 per cent of COVID-19 hospital admissions to ICU were within 24 hours of admission to the hospital, meaning many patients are coming to the hospital when they are already very sick. 

Shahab recommended getting tested if you are showing any symptoms to try and catch it early so you can isolate to avoid spreading it and avoid ICU.