Despite the recent run-up in wheat futures, the fundamentals in the wheat market remain somewhat bearish.  Neil Townsend, a Canadian Wheat Board Market Analyst, says that's partly because we've had a significant weather event in western Canada.

"And the second thing is very dry, severe drought in the wheat areas of Russia and Kazahkstan. That has been very detrimental to their crop."

However, supplies in the U.S. remain at cumbersome levels and the U.S. crop is looking great with 5 million fewer acres than last year, but when all is said and done their total wheat production looks like it's going to be equal to last year.

Growers should consider the risk right now as weather-driven markets tend to lose ground as harvest approaches. On top of that, all three futures markets for wheat are located in the U.S. where production is slated to reach historically high levels.

On the flip side, Townsend says prices could move higher if we see an unexpected increase in demand. "The one thing that we haven't seen yet that usually confirms a bull market is incremental or unexpected demand. Wheat demand has been a regular this year and we're looking for something that will really spark the demand side of things."